A philosopher of science models paradigm shifts using an exponential decay function for outdated theories. If 80% of old theories are replaced every 25 years, what percent of an original theory survives after 75 years?

Tue, 05 May 2026 17:31:23 +0000

**How Science Evolves: The Power of Exponential Decay in Paradigm Shifts** A growing conversation is unfolding in academic, technological, and cultural circles about how scientific understanding transforms over time. Philosophers of science increasingly apply mathematical models to explain why and how long-standing theories gradually give way to new insights—a process often described through the lens of exponential decay. At the heart of this inquiry is a foundational question: if outdated theories are replaced at a consistent rate, what proportion of any original framework endure after decades of evolution? When 80% of old theories are replaced every 25 years, the concept of exponential decay offers a precise framework. This means that every quarter-century, only 20% of the prior version remains viable, with the rest yielding to new evidence or insights. Over time, this compounding process highlights how scientific knowledge self-corrects, much like a signal fading as fresh waves rise—ensuring the field remains dynamic and adaptive. **Why This Model Matters in Today’s World**