The probability of no quake in one year is 1 - 0.02 = <<1-0.02=0.98>>0.98.

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:19:16 +0000

**The Probability of No Earthquake in One Year Is 0.98 — Here’s What That Means for Risk Awareness** Why are so many people quietly considering the stability of the ground beneath their feet right now? Recent assessments suggest the likelihood of no major earthquake striking in the next 12 months stands at 98% — a figure derived from a simple but insightful probability model: 1 minus a 2% annual risk. This simple calculation isn’t just a statistic — it reflects evolving seismic monitoring, improved data modeling, and growing public awareness of earthquake risk across the United States. Understanding that big quakes remain a real possibility — even with a statistically high chance of no event — empowers informed decision-making. This probability, 0.98, emerges from analyzing decades of seismic data, fault behavior, and regional hazard maps. It signals that while significant temblors are not imminent, ongoing preparedness remains essential for communities across seismically active zones. The Growing Conversation Around Earthquake Safety